Guto Bebb - Ceidwadwyr Aberconwy Conservatives

BBC and S4C - 6/11

I will be recording interviews with the BBC for their Welsh news programmes and also for their S4C output this evening.  The pretext is the visit of David Cameron to North Wales but the questions will, I suspect, relate to two referendums.  The decision made by the Conservative leadership in relation to the Lisbon Treaty will be questioned I suspect and also the views of David Cameron in relation to a possible referendum on further powers to the Welsh Assembly.

Byddaf yn recordio cyfweliadau gyda'r BBC ar gyfer ei rhaglenni newyddion yma yng Nghymru boed yn y Gymraeg neu'r Saesneg heno 'ma.  Yr esgus yw ymweliad David Cameron â gogledd Cymru ond fe fydd y cwestiynau yn canolbwyntio ar ddau refferendwm fe dybiaf sef ein hagwedd fel plaid tuag at bleidlais yn achos cytundeb Lisbon ac hefyd y bleidlais arfaethedig ynghylch pwerau ychwanegol i'r Cynulliad.

Guto

Craig y Don 4/11/09

Terrible weather on Wednesday night resulted in a rather small turnout in Craig y Don for my latest Public Meeting.  However the small numbers did not allow me an early night since the questions kept coming thick and fast.  Key issues were the continued loss of life suffered by British Forces in Afghanistan, the state of the public finances and a number of questions relating to the Health Service.

Whilst I have throughly enjoyed the public meetings I suspect that the numbers that I have attracted will be placed in context this Friday when the Cameron Direct event comes to Llandudno.  The telephone lines in the office have been very busy and it appears as if the turnout will be very good.  It would appear that the residents of Llandudno and the Aberconwy Constituency are very keen to question a man who, with their support, will replace Gordon Brown as Prime Minister.

Guto

Dafydd Wigley - Radio Cymru 2/11/09

Y mae gennyf gryn dipyn o barch at Dafydd Wigley, cyn Aelod Seneddol Caernarfon.  Yn anffodus yr oedd ei gyfraniad i raglen Gwilym Owen heddiw ymhell o fod yn un o glasuron deallusol Dafydd.  Bwrdwn neges Dafydd oedd fod angen galw refferendwm am bwerau'r Cynulliad fis Medi neu Hydref 2010 oherwydd y byddai 'na lywodraeth Geidwadol mewn grym erbyn hynny.  Mewn geiriau eraill y mae cyn ddisgybl Ysgol Rydal yn parhau i gredu mae'r unig ffordd i sicrhau mwy o bwerau i'r Cynulliad fyddai cynnal pleidlais, nid ar addasrwydd y cynigion ar gyfer pwerau'r Cynulliad, ond yn hytrach ar sail rhyw fath o ryfel dosbarth yn erbyn y Blaid Geidwadol.

Y mae gennyf neges syml iawn i Dafydd.  Os am ddenu cefnogaeth i bwerau rhesymol fyddai'n rhoi trefn ar ddeddf wallus Llywodraeth Cymru 2006 yna fe fydd angen cefnogaeth o bob rhan o Gymru a chan bob math o unigolion sy'n digwydd byw i'r gorllewin o Glawdd Offa.  Os mae bwriad Dafydd a'i debyg yw cynnal pleidlais am hawl y Ceidwadwyr i fod yn llywodraethu yn San Steffan, a thrwy hynny ddylanwadu ar lywodraeth Cymru, yna fe fydd y posibilrwydd o greu partneriaeth draws bleidiol i wared Cymru o effeithiau negyddol deddf 2006 yn llawer anoddach.

Un pwynt arall.  Fel gwleidydd profiadol a deallus fe ddylai Dafydd ddeall nad oes modd cynnal pleidlais ar 'bwerau'r Alban' o fewn y setliad cyfansoddiadol fel y mae'n bodoli.  Y mae awgrymu y dylid cael geiriad i'r cwestiwn ar sail yr angen am bwerau tebyg i'r Alban unai yn dangos diffyg gonestrwydd neu diffyg dealltwriaeth.  O 'nabod Dafydd ni chredaf ei fod yn cam ddeall y sefyllfa felly trist yw gorfod dod i'r casgliad ei fod yn bod yn fwriadol anonest yn ei sylwadau am 'bwerau'r Alban'.

I have a lot of respect for Dafydd Wiglesy, the retired MP for Caernarfon.  Unfortunately his contribution to the devolution debate made today on the Gwilym Owen programme on Radio Cymru were not his finest hour.  Dafydd basically wants a referendum on further powers for the Assembly to be held in September or October 2010 because he feels that there will be a Conservative Government at Westminster by that point.  In other words it would appear that the Rydal School educated Wigley wants to play class war against the Conservative Party rather than arguing his case for further powers for the Assembly on the merits of the proposals.

I have a simple message for Dafydd.  If you want to attract support for a meaningful review of the current constitutional mess that we have in Wales as a result of the Government of Wales Act 2006 then you will need to attract support from all parts of Wales and from all of us who happen to live west of Offa's Dyke.  If, rather than arguing his case, Dafydd prefers the option of a referendum on the right of the Conservative Party to govern then he will destroy any opportunity to create a consensus in Wales on how the Assembly should serve the people of Wales.  Is that his intention?

One final point.  Dafydd also stated more than once that the people of Wales should be asked whether they want the same powers as Scotland has.  He is either being dishonest or fails to understand the current constitutional question.  In simple terms the option of a referendum on 'powers similar to Scotland' is simply not on offer.  To continue to talk about a vote on such an option is less than honest.

Guto

  

Is it a vote on Lisbon or something better?

The expectation is that the Czech Republic will ratify the Lisbon Treaty within days.  When this happens the Conservative Party need to be ready to state with some clarity where we stand on the European issue.  Will there be a retrospective referendum on Lisbon?  Will we re-examine our relationship with the EU in detail?

Last night an interesting post appeared on the Conservative Home site written by Tim Montgomerie.  I found it to be an interesting commentary on what could prove to be a more effective way of dealing with the ambitions of the anti-democratic EU elite than a difficult post ratification referendum on Lisbon.

As a former member of the Council of Business for Sterling in Wales and a member of Open Europe (who campaign for a more democratic and less centralised EU) I have always held strong views about the EU 'project' but have seen the option of voting for UKIP as nothing more than a desperate protest vote.  Will the proposals outlined within the Conservative Home site provide a policy on the EU which will both satisfy the need to reduce the influence of the european institutions whilst also keeping those who want a referendum on Lisbon on side?  I'm not sure but would appreciate your views.

Guto   

Craig y Don - 31/10

Largest team yet!  We managed to canvass half of the ward between  10am and 2pm and then leafleted many other parts of the ward with details of both my public meeting in Craig y Don next Wednesday and the David Cameron visit next Friday.

The canvass return was excellent.  Plaid consider this to be a good area for them but the evidence from this morning (and the County Council election of 2008) would indicate that this was a good area for local resident Gareth Jones.  It would appear that his party do not enjoy the same level of support or respect as Gareth did.

I met one Labour voter, three BNP and not a single Liberal.  Even more impressive was the fact that Conservative pledges outpolled all other options (apart from not home!) by a comfortable margin.

Sesiwn dda iawn bore heddiw.  Tim sylweddol a brwdfrydig gyda hanner y ward wedi ei chanfasio mewn pedair awr.  Hon, am rai blynyddoedd, oedd ward Cyngor Sir Gareth Jones AC.  O'r hyn a gafwyd ar stepan drws bore heddiw pleidlais i Gareth sydd wedi bodoli yng Nghraig y Don ac nid pleidlais i'w Blaid.  Dim golwg bron o Lafur na'r Rhyddfrydwyr ond tair pleidlais i'r BNP yn anffodus.

Guto

CAMERON DIRECT in Aberconwy

We are delighted to announce that David Cameron is visiting Aberconwy  for one of his acclaimed 'Cameron Direct' shows.

This is a fantastic chance for ordinary members of the public to meet the next Prime Minister and ask him direct and tough questions.

Entry is free and it is a genuine public meeting and is not stuffed with Tory activists asking soft questions; indeed they are excluded from the event and meet him separately.

Mr Cameron will be introduced by Aberconwy Conservative's candidate - Guto Bebb.

The event will be held on November 6th at 5 pm.

The location will be announced  to those who have registered on the day, for security reasons. Registration is necessary to get entry and can be done by ringing our office on 01492 583743 - 9.30am-5.00pm.

Does dim llawer o waith cyfieithu ar yr uchod!  Yn syml iawn, mae 'na groeso i unrhyw un sy'n byw yn etholaeth Aberconwy i wneud cais i fod yn y gynulleidfa ar gyfer y digwyddiad hwn.  Y rhif ffôn allweddol yw 01492 583743.  Cofiwch NAD digwyddiad i'r blaid Geidwadol fydd y cyfarfod hwn - yn wir dim ond pump aleod lleol sy'n cael dod draw a hynny fel stiwardiaid!  Cyfle i drigolion lleol daflu cwestiwn at arweinydd yr wrthblaid yw'r cyfarfod hwn.  Mae 'na groeso cynnes i bawb sy'n dal i ystyried pa ffordd i fwrw pleidlais yn yr etholiad nesaf.

Question Time - Llandudno 29/10

Not a classic was it?

In many ways I think that the fact that Ms Smith, our former Home Secretary, was on the panel created a diversion with too much of the programme devoted to her position and alleged wrongdoings.  There were good moments from Elfyn Llwyd and Cheryl and even Ms Smith was passionate on the drugs issue but on balance I have to say that I have seen better programme from QT.

However, we can agree that it was better than last week I suspect and there is some evidence that poor Lembit is no longer able to convince with his allegedly serious politician act.  It was also good to see Nigel Roberts, the Llandudno businessman, pointing out the failures of the Assembly partnership between Labour and Plaid in terms of their response to the current recession.  

I was also taken by the articulate demolition job undertaken by the businessman in a green shirt on the 'spin' coming out of Peter Mandelson and his department in relation to their work to support businesses during this current downturn.  His comment about 57 businesses only (if I remember correctly) being supported by the government initiative in terms of export credit was very effective.  It's a pity that nobody commented on the spin coming out of Plaid in relation to the ProAct and ReAct initiatives which I have discussed previously.  As yet the beneficiary businesses within Conwy from this schemes continue to amount to none.  This is despite our AM, Gareth Jones, spouting about the success of the initiative within the debating chamber of the Assembly.

Guto    

You Gov and Penrhyn Bay - 27/10/09

An interesting You Gov poll today which is the first Welsh only poll that the company has conducted.  The figures were very good for the Conservative Party with the breakdown as follows;

Labour 34%

Conservatives 31%

Plaid 15%

Liberals 12%

The above poll represents a huge 10% swing to the Conservatives from Labour since 2005 with Plaid increasing slightly (2%) and the Liberals falling back.

I am not one to put a huge emphasis on polls and there are some concerns in relation to the methodology of this poll such as the fact that 42% of respondents claim to be Welsh speaking, either fluent or to an extent.  This figure compares to 28% recorded in the Census of 2001. 

Does this figure highlight the You Gov use of on-line research which favours the young?  It's a fact that most young people in Wales today will have studied Welsh as a direct result of the education reforms introduced by Lord Roberts of Conwy when he was in the Welsh Office during the 1980's.  However, this slight quirk to the results means that I will wait to see a few of these polls before forming an opinion.

As for the canvassing in Penrhyn Bay - a good session with a team of seven.  The response was very good with people desperate for an election to give the country a new start.

Guto

Too Busy to Blog!

My apologies - I have not blogged for a while due to work taking my all over Wales whilst politics has also been very demanding.  On the political front there has been an excellent response on the doorstep in Penrhyn Bay, Dwygyfylchi and the Valley whilst the public meeting in Capelulo was very demanding in terms of the questions asked.

Media work has been fairly regular with a good session on the Radio Cymru programme 'Dau o'r Bae'.  My third appearance on the Welsh Conservative Party Political Broadcast in two years has also led to some interesting moments at petrol stations, supermarket checkouts and business meetings.  I never knew that so many people watch these things.  I have yet to see it but have been told that the scenery was very pretty!

I was out this evening in Penrhyn Bay again with a good team and the response was very encouraging.  We should almost finish the first canvass of Penrhyn Bay since the European election tomorrow night.  There is also a huge amount of leafleting going on with respect to the series of public meetings now scheduled for the Llandudno area and we are very busy in the office due to an anticipated Shadow Cabinet visit in the near future.

Last Saturday the Conservative Party Welsh Policy Conference was held in Llandudno and we had a very good turnout - probably the best to date.  Our new MEP, Kay Swinburne was by common consent the star performer but I also thought that Shadow Housing Minister Grant Shapps was very good whilst David Jones MP wrapped things up in his usual style.

I will blog on a more regular basis over the next few weeks.

Guto

Wedi bod yn brysur!

Ymddiheuriadau am fod yn brin o sylwadau'n ddiweddar - dwi wedi bod yn hynod brysur.

Ers i mi flogio ddiwethaf mae gwaith wedi fy llusgo i bob rhan o Gymru tra fod gwleidyddiaeth wedi fy ngweld yn canfasio ym Mae Penrhyn, Dwygyfylchi a'r Dyffryn.  Cafwyd cyfarfod cyhoeddus da iawn yn ward Capelulo ynghyd â trafodaeth fywiog ar raglen Radio Cymru, Dau o'r Bae.

Yr wythnos yma dwi wedi bod allan ym Mae Penrhyn eto heno ac fe fydd y ganfas gyntaf ers etholiad Ewrop yn gorffen yno nos 'fory.  Yr ydym hefyd fel tim yn brysur ddosbarthu taflenni ar gyfer y cyfarfodydd cyhoeddus yng Nghraig y Don a Bae Penrhyn gyda'r cyfarfodydd yn Llandudno a Deganwy i ddilyn.

Cafwyd hefyd gynhadledd bolis y Blaid Geidwadol Gymreig yn Llandudno dydd Sadwrn diwethaf gyda nifer sylweddol iawn yn troi allan.

Dyna gip ar y prysurdeb.  Fe ymdrechaf i flogio'n fwy cyson tros y dyddiau nesaf.

Guto